Second Nagorno-Karabakh war ceasfire violated.

Origins of the conflict

The Armenia - Azerbaijan conflict is a long-standing dispute over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous enclave that is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but is controlled by ethnic Armenians and the self-declared republic of Artsakh. The conflict dates back to the late 1980s, when Nagorno-Karabakh voted to join Armenia amid the collapse of the Soviet Union, sparking a war that killed tens of thousands and displaced up to a million people. The first Nagorno-Karabakh war resulted in victory for Armenia and significant territorial gains and defacto independence for the Republic of Artsakh. A ceasefire was brokered by Russia in 1994, but sporadic clashes continued over the years along the line of contact.

The second Nagorno-Karabkh war

In late September 2020, the conflict re-escalated into the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war. The fighting lasted for six weeks and resulted in Azerbaijan regaining significant portions of Nagorno-Karabakh and the entirety of the Azerbaijan-Iran border.

Turkey openly provided support to Azerbaijan, with claims by Armenia of direct involvement in the war. Russia maintained its close ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan and did not become involved in the conflict despite Armenia calling on their support as a member of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation). Similar to Article 5 of the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation), Article 4 of the CSTO's treaty states that an act of aggression towards one member will be treated as an attack against all members. However, Russia refused to intervene stating it would only become involved if the war was to enter territory internationally recognised as Armenian.

2020 Ceasefire

The war ended with a ceasefire deal signed on November 9, 2020, under the mediation of Russia. The deal stipulated that Armenia would withdraw from most of the remaining territories it had occupied around Nagorno-Karabakh since the 1990s, and that Russian peacekeepers would be deployed along the line of contact and form a corridor around Lachin connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. The deal also allowed for the restoration of transport links between the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan through the south of Armenia.

 

The ceasefire deal was hailed as a victory by Azerbaijan and Turkey, but sparked protests and anger in Armenia, where many saw it as a humiliating capitulation. The humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh remains precarious, and Azerbaijan has blockaded supply routes between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.

 25 March 2023

On the 25th March 2023 Azerbaijan violated the 2020 ceasefire agreement by advancing into Armenian held territory in Nagorno Karabakh. They took control of some heights north of the Lachin supply road and there are also reports that they took control of dirt roads further north which they have claimed Armenia is using for military supply. Russian peacekeepers have now intervened, taken control of the heights and are in negotiations with Azerbaijan to get them to withdraw back to the agreed 2020 ceasefire lines.

 

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